Daily Market Newsletter

I have no positions at this time.

We’ll park this strategy until the next high-probability condition shows. We’ll want to see daily exhaustion on the SPX or RUT after a strong move, at the very least.

I have no remaining positions. Calendar spreads are good for markets in quiet/trending character, so there is a good shot that we can start to play these again.

The calendar spread tracking sheet is available for your download here. Yes, if you follow the math in the sheet, all of the numbers account for commissions in and out of the trade. Please note: If you trade these positions please keep the size small, to the point where you “do not care” about the success or failure of this position.

I am targeting stocks using short puts/covered calls that offer a much lower absolute risk point, where in event of crash we can almost define our total risk by the price of the underlying. While this is not how I intend to manage risk in these positions, I view this as fundamentally more solid than trying to actively manage risk on assets that are going for $$$hundreds which have also gone parabolic. I have the following positions in play:

• SLV Stock – I have 1000 shares of the SLV that was assigned at the $15 level. I will look for the next bounce to sell calls into. We’re getting close, I’d prefer to sell at the $15 strike if possible.

No entries at this time; I’d like to see a decent pullback before we go shopping again for new stock candidates.

The crypto market has once again peered over the edge of the abyss and survived; I would like to see a quick flush and slingshot.

Investors should currently be looking to find technical entries to warehouse BTC/ETH/LTC assets for eventual trades on Alt-coins. You should also be looking to devices like “trezor” or other cold-storage devices to keep your assets off of the network, or other secure wallet such as Navcoin. Relying on the security of your broker is no longer good enough; no one can log into your ETrade account and “steal” your stock assets, but the whole nature of Cryptocurrencies and their portability means that someone can grab your assets and transfer them elsewhere. I will continue to discuss the tradingview platform in daily videos as I think that it is currently the best way to chart the “big three.”

Viewing the SPY from the Friday closing price at 290.72, there is a +/-3.502 EM into this coming Friday.  This is somewhat larger than last week’s 3.376EM but not by much. .

The EM targets for this Friday’s close are 294.22 to the upside, and 287.22 to the downside.

We can fade either marker this week; last week we got very close to the lower marker.

This is a new section for this newsletter; I would like to start to carefully build some bearish positions that would be the virtual opposite of a covered call, yet I will use deep ITM long puts as the short stock substitute, and write short covered puts against those long puts.

I would like to add one additional consideration to the criteria, in that I’d like to see the price print a “lower high” first on the daily chart. Otherwise what is “high” can go “higher” as we’ve seen repeatedly over the years.

I will also publish the criteria for managing the short and long positions with this strategy. This is definitely counter-trend for now but might prove to be valuable down the road.

Right now we are seeing LOW and UNP show up on this scan. Quite honestly nothing has really faded after showing on this scan. We might need to wait for larger timeframes to exhaust themselves as it appears like 2017 is repeating again.

Previously I was seeing MRK, PFE, and LLY show up on this scan; I added the MRK 16NOV $75 puts for about $7.00/contract as a paper trade. I’ll just track this one on paper for now while we develop management rules. If the price drops I will sell short-term puts against it (on paper). We’re seeing a very bullish market right now so I would not expect this strategy to be easy to trade right now; this is why we’re getting our feet wet and looking to build inventory when things go really off the rails.

The scan that I discussed in the 8/4/2018 video is available to download for thinkorswim here: http://tos.mx/OvdVnz

I will also be adding a second Larry Connors scan to this section as well; here is the Connors Crash scan: http://tos.mx/BhHuKL

I have the following positions at this time:

• IWM 19OCT 170/172 debit call vertical (9/17) entered for $1.03 debit and will look for 50% return on this position. This one looks dead with only two weeks to go.
• MCD 26OCT 162.5/165 debit call vertical (9/24) entered for $1.25 debit and closed 9/28 for $1.71 credit. This gave us a net $42/contract profit after commissions, or a 33.6% return on capital.
• QQQ 26OCT 190.5/191.5 debit call vertical (9/25) entered for $.18, and sold off today (10/1) for a $.36 credit. This gave us a net $14/contract profit after commissions, or a 78% return on capital.
• NVDA 02NOV 285/287.5 debit call spread (10/1) entered for $1.22 debit, looking for 50% return on this trade. I might have missed my opportunity to make a quick 30% and get out.

No other entries at this point .

The “Hindenburg Strategy” is meant to capture “value” from successive corrections that lead up to the final “death spiral” with a Bear Market. The basic principle is to buy 3-month out long puts on the SPY, and to finance those puts by the sale of credit spreads. Frankly, selling the “financing” trades has been a huge challenge in this low-vol environment. I will only sell put spreads on decent pullbacks that allow me to secure put spreads 10% OTM. We have no positions at the current time.

I have the following position:

• SPY 16NOV 257 Puts (8/23) entered for $1.50 debit. I would close these on a test of the 200 day moving average.
• SPY DEC 262 Puts (9/17) entered for $1.72 debit. I would close these on a test of the 200 day moving average.

No further actions.