Daily Newsletter
August 5, 2019Non-Directional Strategies
Semi-Directional Strategies
Directional Strategies
Bitcoin/Crypto
View Doc's New Book
August Expiration
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Market Commentary
China retaliated today in the Trade War and the results were not pretty. An almost 3% haircut in the market however the mainstream press will only focus on the number of points that the Dow trimmed, focusing on the ~900 number.
Is this the “shot over the bow” that announces the start of the next Bear Market? That would certainly go in line with the Broadening Pattern.
Or is this just yet another sharp pullback that starts to create the transition to “sideways and volatile” price movement? This is what I would give the probability odds to at this point.
Please note that my long condor exit fired today for our target profit, and my Hindenburg Puts are close to the desired exit point at the 200 ma.
What is our next offensive move? We’re sort of “in-between” opportunities this week. The month of August could be a very volatile one as risk is re-priced. I believe the opportunity for now is with long condors as well as identifying long stock opportunities that we can sell puts against. We might increase our Hindenburg exposure on the next bounce up again, which could set up a “lower high.” I believe we’re well-positioned for now, and while the current pullback has been sharp, it’s not really setting up any “great” put-selling opportunities….yet.
Short-Term Outlook: We’ve been in a massive consolidation pattern since early 2018, or almost another “horizontal bear market” like we had in 2015-2016. All that energy that’s been coiled up has to go somewhere, the policy and odds favor it to go higher, but we’ll know which price levels to respect to warn us if that energy’s going lower instead.
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Offensive Actions
Offensive Actions for the next trading day:
- This pullback is too shallow yet to be aggressive with dip-buying or put-selling strategies; perhaps later this week.
- Today’s close was very close to triggering the “low advancers” swing trade strategy.
Defensive Actions
Defensive actions for the next trading day:
- Any vertical, butterfly, or diagonal debit spreads that we set up are risk-managed from day one, and no defense is really required.
Strategy Summary Graphs
Each graph below represents a summary of the current performance of a strategy category. For an explanation of what the graphs mean, watch this video.
Non-Directional Strategies
Semi-Directional Strategies
Directional Strategies
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Technical Analysis Section
Market Internals: Volume was large today with advancers minus decliners showing a weak value of -482, just off the lows of the day.
SPX Market Timer : The Intermediate line has fallen below the Upper Reversal Zone and is now bearish. This chart is now showing a Weak Bullish Cluster for the second day in a row with the two weakest timeframes being oversold; this is a leading signal for a possible bounce.
DOW Theory: The SPX is in a long term uptrend, an intermediate uptrend, and a short-term downtrend. The RUT is in a long-term uptrend, an intermediate sideways trend, and a short-term downtrend. The Dow is in an intermediate uptrend and short-term downtrend.
VIX: The VIX rose to 24.28, above the Bollinger bands. The RVX rose to 25.97, and is outside the Bollinger bands.
Fibonacci Retracements: The SPX is showing a pullback to the 6.18% fib retracement of the most recent swing, and is below the 23.6% retracement of the major swing since December.
Support/Resistance: For the SPX, support is at 2730 and overhead resistance at 3028. The DOW has support at 24800 and overhead resistance at 28399. The RUT has support at 1460 and resistance at 1618.
Fractal Energies: The major timeframe (Monthly) is charged again with a reading of 52. The Weekly chart has an energy reading of 49, starting to recharge. The Daily chart is showing 33, in exhaustion from the sell-off. Larger timeframe energies are waiting on a very big move, which will start with the smallest timeframes.
Other Technicals: The SPX Stochastics indicator fell to 59, mid-scale. The RUT Stochastics rose to 53, mid-scale. The SPX MACD histogram fell below the signal line showing a decrease in momentum. The SPX is below the lower Bollinger Band with support at 2908 and resistance at the upper band at 3067. The RUT is below the lower Bollinger Band with its boundaries at 1517 to 1599. The Bollinger Bands were starting to “squeeze” on both the SPX and RUT, implying a forward move which appears to have started.
Position Management – NonDirectional Trades
I have the positions in play at this time:
- SPY 16AUG 290/291*306/307 Long Iron Condor (7/22) was entered for $.17 debit on both call and put sides for a total risk/debit of $.34. There is a 9.5 point EM into this expiration. I closed out the put spreads for $.55 credit (8/5). This gave me a net profit of $34/contract on the puts, which means that we’ll make at least a 50% return on this trade even if the calls expire worthless.
I will consider setting up a HP SPX bull put spread for the SEP cycle but I’d like to see more downside first.
I have no positions in play:
I believe we’ll see a very choppy summer period and might try to take advantage of Weekly Short Iron Condors when we get the right signals. This is not the right market for this strategy at this point.
I have no current positions:
Calendar spreads are good for markets in quiet/trending character. If the market reverts back to quiet/trending, then I’ll look to continue this method; if we see the daily chart go into exhaustion I’ll set up a back week calendar.
The calendar spread tracking sheet is available for your download here. Yes, if you follow the math in the sheet, all of the numbers account for commissions in and out of the trade. Please note: If you trade these positions please keep the size small, to the point where you “do not care” about the success or failure of this position.
I have the following positions in play:
- SLV Stock – I have 1000 shares of the SLV that was assigned at the $15 level. I sold the SLV 19JUL $15 calls (6/20) for $.15 credit. I closed/rolled these options down for $.13 and opened up new SLV 30AUG $16 calls for $.16 credit, or a $.03 net credit on the roll. If the price of SLV gets up to $16 in the near term then I’ll roll further up/out again.
- CSCO – I sold the 16AUG $50 puts (6/10) for a $.64 credit. I will look to close this one for $.05 to $.10 debit. Looks like the $.10 debit was available last week and should have taken it.
Even though this has been a decent pullback, I’d like to stay conservative in the near term and look for something a little deeper before we go back to the well.
Position Management – Directional Trades
Thoughts on current swing strategies:
- 8/21 EMA Crossover – Looking at the next signal;
- RSI(2) CounterTrend – None at this time.
- Daily S&P Advancers – Looking for the next signal to go long when we have single-digit advancers on the ADSPD. This happened for a few minutes today, and might show up in the near term.
- Swing – None at this time..
The Bear appears to be over. In the near term I expect to see large consolidation swings, which might provide “value” entries for these coins on a dip.
Investors should currently be looking to find technical entries to warehouse BTC/ETH/LTC assets for eventual trades on Alt-coins. You should also be looking to devices like “trezor” or other cold-storage devices to keep your assets off of the network, or other secure wallet such as Navcoin. Relying on the security of your broker is no longer good enough; no one can log into your ETrade account and “steal” your stock assets, but the whole nature of Cryptocurrencies and their portability means that someone can grab your assets and transfer them elsewhere. I will continue to discuss the tradingview platform in daily videos as I think that it is currently the best way to chart the “big three.”
From Friday’s close at SPY 292.62, there is a +/-5.87 EM into this coming Friday; this almost double last week’s 3.976 EM. The EM targets for this Friday’s close are 298.49 to the upside, and 286.75 to the downside.
The lower EM got punched out today and did not have a chance. If the price trades above this level it might be a signal to go long.
I will start playing directional bear spreads once we see upside exhaustion on more than one timeframe.
The scan that I discussed in the 8/4/2018 video is available to download for thinkorswim here: http://tos.mx/OvdVnz I will also be adding a second Larry Connors scan to this section as well; here is the Connors Crash scan: http://tos.mx/BhHuKL
I have the following positions in play at this time:
- PEP 9AUG 133/134 Debit Call Spread (7/12) entered for a $.50 debit and will look for 50%.
- MSFT 30AUG 141/142 Debit Call Spread (7/28) entered for a $.50 debit and will look for 50% return.
No more entries in the short run.
The “Hindenburg Strategy” is meant to capture “value” from successive corrections that lead up to the final “death spiral” with a Bear Market. The basic principle is to buy 3-month out long puts on the SPY, and to finance those puts by the sale of credit spreads.
I have the following positions at this time:
- SPY 18OCT 269 puts (7/23) were entered for $1.70 debit. I would clear this position on a re-test of the 200 dma.