Daily Market Newsletter

Another profitable month….that’s 15 months in a row and we’re running at an 86.3% monthly win rate over the last 146 months. We have been very consistent since mid-2013 when market character showed the effects of change after Quantitative Easing really pushed markets around. As I state in my November Performance Summary (tab below) it’s been a very difficult period to pick up any alpha in markets….the swing trade breakouts just aren’t there unless you want to accept the risk of holding over earnings. Premium is not worth selling unless you are willing to hold the underlying asset; for this reason I’m picking on cheap underlyings to sell against.

I believe that we will see increasing volatility into the end of the year; we won’t see any real sell-offs, but neither will we see strong rallies above the S&P2600 level. This week itself could be low on the “drama” scale due to it only being a 3.5 day session shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday.

The market remains at extreme risk of an “exogenous event” which is news coming into the market that has not already been priced in. We could easily see a 3-5% single day event if the wrong news hit the wire. Make sure that your treatment of risk in your account can account for that potential move. We should continue to trade with the uptrend but in this Musical Chairs market, the music can stop very quickly. Any dip regardless of depth should create higher prices to follow.

The scan for the “Cheap Stocks with Weeklys” is available here.

The current MAIN “high liquidity” watchlist that I’m scanning against in thinkorswim is available here.

The latest crypto video (VertCoin Explained) is available here

If you cannot view today’s video, please click here to view an embedded flash video.

Offensive Actions

Offensive Actions for the next trading day:

Weekly EM levels have been set; see “weekly EM” section below.
I will sell the next series of NUGT calls; see “stocks” section below.

Defensive Actions

Defensive actions for the next trading day:

Any vertical, butterfly, or diagonal debit spreads that we set up are risk-managed from day one, and no defense is really required.

Strategy Summary Graphs

Each graph below represents a summary of the current performance of a strategy category. For an explanation of what the graphs mean, watch this video.

Non-Directional Strategies

Semi-Directional Strategies

Directional Strategies

Technical Analysis Section

Market Internals: Volume was above average Friday and breadth was mixed with +5 advancers minus decliners.

SPX Market Timer : The Intermediate line fell below the Upper Reversal Zone, now showing a bearish bias. The price has faded lower after all of the multiple bearish clusters that we’ve seen for weeks. The shorter-timeframes signals are still hanging below the Upper Reversal Zone so it would take about one more day of strong upside to signal another bear cluster, however.

DOW Theory: The SPX is in a long term uptrend, an intermediate uptrend, and a short-term sideways trend. The RUT is in a long-term uptrend, an intermediate uptrend, and a short-term downtrend. The Dow is in an intermediate uptrend and short-term sideways trend.

VIX: The VIX fell to 11.43, back inside the bollinger bands. This is after a twenty-year low on the VIX. The RVX fell to 14.80 and is inside the bollinger bands.

Fibonacci Retracements: If we see an actual pullback then I’ll start to determine fib levels that might act as potential support.

Support/Resistance: For the SPX, support is at 2509 … with overhead resistance at 2597. The RUT has support at RUT 1350 with overhead resistance at about 1515. All three major index charts that we follow are now showing a Golden Cross with the 50 day moving average crossing above the 200 day average.

Fractal Energies: The major timeframe (Monthly) is now down into exhaustion again with a reading of 26. The Weekly chart is now in exhaustion with an energy reading of 35, due to the recent trend. The Daily chart is showing a level of 61 which is now massively charged and a high potential for movement. We are seeing the movement that we expected, however with an exhausted monthly chart, I don’t think any breakout will be able to reach its potential. The DOW was in triple exhaustion recently which is a rare exhaustion signal.

Other Technicals: The SPX Stochastics indicator fell to 67, mid-scale. The RUT Stochastics indicator rose to 31, above oversold. The SPX MACD histogram fell below the signal line, showing a loss of upside momentum. The SPX is back inside the Bollinger Bands with Bollinger Band support at 2558 and resistance at the upper band at 2599 and is below the upper band. The RUT is back inside the Bollinger Bands with its boundaries at 1465 to 1512 and price is near the middle of the bands with the bands starting to expand after the squeeze.

We are seeing the market reaching into a full “runaway” condition, where “fear of missing out” means abandoning any former patience and “wait for the dip” strategy. This usually occurs near the top of the intermediate move.

I had the following results for the 17NOV 2017 Options Cycle:

High Probability Iron Condors

No trades this period

Low Probability Iron Condors

No trades this period

Time Spreads

No trades this period.

Cash-Secured Puts/Covered Calls

SLV 17NOV $18 covered calls expired for a $210 profit on ten contracts.
F 17NOV $11 short puts expired for a $180 profit on ten contracts.
CHK 17NOV $4 puts were closed early for an $80 profit on twenty contracts.
NUGT 27OCT $31 puts created a profit of $250 on 5 contracts after commissions.
NUGT 3NOV $31 calls created a profit of $195 after commissions.
NUGT 10NOV $31 calls created a profit of $205 after commissions.
NUGT 17NOV $31 calls created a profit of $125 on 5 contracts after commissions.
DUST 3NOV $25.5 puts created a profit of $140 on 5 contracts after commissions.
DUST 10NOV $25.5 puts created a profit of $115 on 5 contracts after commissions.

“Whale” Trades

No trades this period.

Swing Trades

CVX 10NOV 114/115 vertical call spread (RSI2) was closed for a net profit of $70 on five contracts.
MRO 24NOV 14/15 vertical call spread (RSI(2) was closed for a net profit of $80 on five contracts.
IBB 27OCT 345/347.5 vertical call spread expired for a $124 loss on two contracts.
DIA 17NOV 234/236/238 ratio call butterfly was closed for a $65 net profit on five contracts.

Hindenburg Positions

No trades closed this period.

SPY EM Fade/Target

SPY 27OCT 254.5/255.5 debit call spread was closed for a $120 net profit after commissions on five contracts.

Lessons Learned from this cycle:

This has been a very unique market to trade, with most of the “easy” gains on this rally already in the bank. Those chasing this market higher are risking the usual drop that we see after everyone chases it. For this reason, I’m still not comfortable selling premium below the usual support lines with the VIX in the tank like it is. For this reason, I’m still seeing success selling premium against lower-priced assets in a decent uptrend. While not quite as glamorous as setting up spreads below support, it’s still being every effective.

Our efficiency was quite good this period as well, with only one losing trade. I am anticipating a lot of chop into the end of the year and my approach is not changing yet.

Position Management – NonDirectional Trades

I have no positions in play; I will wait on the first significant pullback to allow me to secure put spreads below support.I have not put this strategy into play since the 2016 Brexit reaction as the ultra-low risk premium in today’s market has not made this a wise strategy to pursue due to the inherent risk against the backdrop of super-low risk premium.

Offense: I still do not want to set up OTM credit spreads in this low-vol environment until we see real movement to the downside. If and when we get this movement we’ll need to identify levels that we want our credit spreads to be “below.” This is the same type of price action that was so perilous to HP condors back in 2013, so let’s not fight it.

I would need to see a SIGNIFICANT pullback to make me want to initiate this strategy again. Those selling call spreads are screaming in pain once again.

I have no positions in play. It makes no sense to pursue an order with this strategy until we see normalization in the price action.

I have no remaining positions. This is normally a perfect time to be selling calendar spreads against the RUT or SPX due to the exhaustion levels, however with my most recent experience with them in September, the effort was barely worth the hassle since we’re selling 6% vol and buying 7.5% vol against it. I might target higher IV underlyings to overcome this, at the risk of seeing greater movement.

The calendar spread tracking sheet is available for your download here. Yes, if you follow the math in the sheet, all of the numbers account for commissions in and out of the trade. Please note: If you trade these positions please keep the size small, to the point where you “do not care” about the success or failure of this position.

I personally believe that while markets are in “runaway” mode, easy gains may be had however there is always a huge amount of risk to “buying at the top.” To combat this risk, I am targeting stocks using short puts/covered calls that offer a much lower absolute risk point, where in event of crash we can almost define our total risk by the price of the underlying. While this is not how I intend to manage risk in these positions, I view this as fundamentally more solid than trying to actively manage risk on assets that are going for $$$hundreds which have also gone parabolic.

I have the following positions in play:

SDS Stock – I still own 100 shares of this stock from 2011 and will continue to write calls against this position with every correction/pullback.
VXX Stock – I own 12 shares of this stock and will hold until Armageddon occurs.
SLV Stock – I have 1000 shares of the SLV that was assigned at the $15 level. I sold the NOV $18 calls for $.22 and those expired on Friday. I will wait on the next series of calls until I see a reasonable rally that exhausts the daily fractal.
F NOV17 $11 Puts (9/18) were entered for a $.19 credit and expired for full profit on Friday. I also have the F 15DEC $11 puts that were sold for $.12 (10/16).
CHK DEC17 $3.5 puts were sold for $.19 credit.
NUGT stock – I own 500 shares at the $31 assignment price, although due to selling for the past several weeks, my cost basis is now $27.89 including commissions. The 17NOV NUGT $31 calls which were added for a $.26 credit expired on Friday. I will sell the next set of calls on Friday as detailed below.
DUST 24NOV $25.5 puts were added on 11/17 for a $.35 credit.I will look for a $.05 exit on this position by Friday.
AMD 14DEC $10 puts entered for $.23. (10/30).

I want to enter the next series of calls against my NUGT shares at the $31 strike; the 24NOV $31 calls were going for about a $.25 credit on Friday. I will secure whatever credit I can for those options on Monday morning.

Position Management – Directional Trades

Thoughts on current swing strategies:

8/21 EMA Crossover – Looking for the next 8/21 ema entry. The last entry was at the end of August.
RSI(2) CounterTrend – I entered the MRO 24NOV 14/15 call spread for a $.52 debit per Wednesday’s advisory; I exited Friday for my $.72 credit limit order and this gave me a net $16/contract profit or 30% return. .
Daily S&P Advancers – if I see the number of daily S&P500 advancers drop into single digits near the close of any trading day, I will go long shares of the SSO.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are still the ones to accumulate. The strategy for these two coins remains to be “buying the dip” and there was lots of bad news recently to buy. We are seeing massive gains across the board again.

Please refer to the left sidebar section if you’d like to get caught up on “FAQ” -style intro videos.

Investors should currently be looking to find technical entries to warehouse BTC/ETH/LTC assets for eventual trades on Alt-coins. You should also be looking to devices like “trezor” or other cold-storage devices to keep your assets off of the network, or other secure wallet such as Navcoin. Relying on the security of your broker is no longer good enough; no one can log into your ETrade account and “steal” your stock assets, but the whole nature of Cryptocurrencies and their portability means that someone can grab your assets and transfer them elsewhere.

I will continue to discuss the tradingview platform in daily videos as I think that it is currently the best way to chart the “big three.”

Here is the most recent video which is “Vertcoin Explained”

Viewing the SPY from the current Friday closing price at 257.86, there is a +/- 2.062 EM into this coming Friday. This is a normal EM however keep in mind that there are 1.5 fewer trading days than normal this week.

The EM targets for this Friday’s close is 259.92 to the upside, and 255.80 to the downside.

If either level is tested this week, I will fade that level;. I will use long options on Friday.

I have the following current positions:.

SPY 8DEC 258/260/262 Ratio Butterfly (11/13) was entered for a $.35 credit. I will look for about a 70% profit to close the position.

Entry criteria are:

Using calls
17 to 50 calendar days
center strike .25 to .40 delta
ratio is 1/3/2 quantity, from the bottom, calls are long/short/long

We will exit the spread at a 60-70% level of credit received. The max risk on the trade is defined on the graph if the price goes much higher. There are no early exits, only exiting the week of expiry to avoid assignment. Also avoid dividend periods.

I am currently trialing some trades and will discuss them in the newsletter; after a few cycles, I will start adding these trades to circulation.

TOS scan code: http://tos.mx/ZsIjgu

I have no current positions.

With weekly index charts at exhaustion, this is not a great time to look for explosive breakouts.

No trades for this week at this time.

The “Hindenburg Strategy” is meant to capture “value” from successive corrections that lead up to the final “death spiral” with a Bear Market. The basic principle is to buy 3-month out long puts on the SPY, and to finance those puts by the sale of credit spreads.

Frankly, selling the “financing” trades has been a huge challenge in this low-vol environment. I will only sell put spreads on decent pullbacks that allow me to secure put spreads 10% OTM

We currently have the following positions in play with this strategy:

SPY JAN18 229 long puts (10/11) – i entered this position for a $1.19 debit.