Daily Market Newsletter
February 2, 2019Non-Directional Strategies
Semi-Directional Strategies
Directional Strategies
Bitcoin/Crypto
View Doc's New Book
February Expiration
Day(s)
:
Hour(s)
:
Minute(s)
:
Second(s)
Market Commentary
Here we are, 370 SPX points off of the recent Bear lows, or about 15.8% off of the bottom. I did not anticipate a V-bottom recovery but that’s exactly what occurs when the Federal Reserve chairman first zigs, then zags. This goes back to the October timeframe when Powell first noted how many rate hikes were expected going forward in 2019 as it were a “done deal.” And a mini-crash was the result of the last FOMC meeting in 2018 as the rates got hiked and Powell seemed to be adamant that continued rate hikes were necessary. The S&P dropped 200 handles over the next four sessions right into the Christmas holiday. Things couldn’t have been bleaker.
But them Powell reversed course in the first week of January and appeared to be open to more caution, which was recently amplified by last week’s supportive statement. If we’ve learned one thing over the past ten years, it’s not to “fight” the Fed. Yes, easy money policy will once again get things inflating again, but Powell was only raising rates to give him “room” to drop down the road. And unfortunately that might be coming soon enough.
But wait…304k jobs on Friday? And a participation rate above 63%? Maybe there is more meat on this bone yet.
The ultimate delineator between “Bull” and “Bear” in this market will be the 200 SMA. And the Dow Industrials are now above the 200.
Here are some of the upcoming earnings reports:
- Monday: GOOGL
- Tuesday: DIS
The majority of the market-moving earnings heavyweights have already reported (FB, AAPL, AMZN) and GOOGL reports this week..
In the short-to-medium term, we have three possible outcomes:
- Bottom Re-Test: With the 14% rally off of the bottom, I believe that the chances of this occurring are starting to dim. This would require an immediate second bout of panic selling that would re-test or potentially undercut the December 24 low. I believe that subsequent FOMC language/statements made since the beginning of the year have temporarily mollified investors.
- Grinding Rally to Monthly Lower High: It’s possible for the bottom re-test to be bypassed through the use of a “scary higher low” that creates the same slingshot effect. In this case, we’d see about a three-month rally to recapture as much as 61.8% of the drop from the September highs. If the price exceeds the 200 day simple moving average, which is currently well above the 61.8% fib and the important SPX 2700 level, then I think the odds of this scenario start to dim. I’d say that the rally from the December lows has been anything but “grinding.”
- A 1998 LTCM Repeat: This one featured a bottom re-test (like above) and then a blistering “melt-your-face-off” rally higher. This was a very different rally from a “grind higher to a monthly lower high” so we’ll recognize that if it occurs. We also have to consider that this move might show WITHOUT a bottom re-test a la 1998.
If you’re not sure where you fit in this continuum, use this period to experiment trading AGAINST your emotions. When all looks bleak and hopeless, place very small long positions. When all looks clear and the world is bullish, close those long positions and set up very small bearish trades. Continuing to read/watch the same news as everyone else and trade based on that news will almost certainly guarantee poor performance.
Here is the current scorecard for the correction from the September 2018 highs:
- S&P is down ~594 points or 20.20%
- Dow is down 5239 points or 19.44%
- /NQ is down 1908 points or 24.69%
- RUT is down 475 points or 27.27%
What is our approach to trading this market, which has now moved into a “Volatile/Trending” character?
- Sell credit spreads/create iron condors on the SPX into relative extremes, beyond the current range of movement.
- Establish long iron condors when the price shows potential of moving a great distance in the near future.
- Exercise caution with long stocks/short puts since the 50/200 death cross has hit each index
- Look to establish debit spread-based swing trades against sentiment extremes, and/or EM boundaries
- Use short-term long options to play within the intraday volatility
Please sign up for our free daily crypto report here.
An embedded flash video is available here.
Offensive Actions
Offensive Actions for the next trading day:
- I am looking for new “Whale” entries detailed in the “Whale” section below.
Defensive Actions
Defensive actions for the next trading day:
- Any vertical, butterfly, or diagonal debit spreads that we set up are risk-managed from day one, and no defense is really required.
- Closing orders have been entered for all new spreads.
- Looking to close out HPE for <.04 extrinsic value on the calls.
- I might need to be opportunistic to close some of my trades in the next couple of days, like the 4FEB SPX Condor.
Strategy Summary Graphs
Each graph below represents a summary of the current performance of a strategy category. For an explanation of what the graphs mean, watch this video.
Non-Directional Strategies
Semi-Directional Strategies
Directional Strategies
%
%
%
0
Technical Analysis Section
Market Internals: Volume was average Friday and breadth ended the day mixed and diverging at +64 advancers minus decliners, from the high water mark of +230.
SPX Market Timer : The Intermediate line rose into the Upper Reversal Zone, still showing a bullish bias. The Intermediate line joined it to form a Strong Bearish cluster short-term for the second day in a row; this could be a leading signal for a pause.
DOW Theory: The SPX is in a long term uptrend, an intermediate downtrend, and a short-term uptrend. The RUT is in a long-term uptrend, an intermediate downtrend, and a short-term uptrend. The Dow is in an intermediate downtrend and short-term uptrend.
VIX: The VIX fell to 16.14 after peaking at 50.3 a year ago, inside the bollinger bands. The RVX fell to 18.48 and is inside the bollinger bands.
Fibonacci Retracements: The price has moved through several important Fib levels and is not caring about any confluence levels that these present, however the SPX 2700 might present the last overhead obstacle WRT fib “resistance.”
Support/Resistance: For the SPX, support is at 2350 … with overhead resistance at 2700, 2800 and 2941. The RUT has support at RUT 950 with overhead resistance at 1500 and 1553. The S&P500, Russell 2000, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 have all printed a Death Cross with the 50ma crossing below the 200ma; this can be a leading signal for a true Bearish move.
Fractal Energies: The major timeframe (Monthly) is charged again, with a reading of 58. The Weekly chart has an energy reading of 48, recharging quickly again. The Daily chart is showing a level of 43 which is starting to reflect the breakout higher. This chart is just about ready for the next major swing.
Other Technicals: The SPX Stochastics indicator fell to 80, overbought. The RUT Stochastics indicator fell to 80, overbought. SPX MACD histogram rose above the signal line, showing a return of upside momentum. The SPX is inside the Bollinger Bands with Bollinger Band support at 2532 and resistance at the upper band at 2718 with price is below the upper band. The RUT is inside the Bollinger Bands with its boundaries at 1397 to 1515 and price is below the upper band.
Position Management – NonDirectional Trades
I have the following positions in play:
- SPX 15MAR 2820/2830 call credit spread (1/17) entered for $.80 credit. I will look for the next retracement to remove this position for a profit.
- SPY 27FEB 225/256*275/276 Long Iron Condor (1/25) entered for $.18 debit on the put spreads and $.20 debit on the call spreads for a total $.38 overall debit. I will look to fill either side at a 200% gain by using separate GTC credit limit orders.
If we continue to see bullish price action, then the long condor will somewhat neutralize/hedge the short call spreads. .
If we see a very sharp move lower in the near future, then we’ll start to scope out a downside put spread entry for MAR. There might be a “higher low” that shows up first.
I have the following position in play:
- SPX 4FEB 2515/2520*2640/2645 Iron Condor (1/14) was entered for a $2.50 credit based on this weekend’s advisory. I will look for a $1.80 debit exit.
- SPX 15FEB 2590/2595*2710/2715 Iron Condor (1/22) was entered for a $2.50 credit based on Saturday’s advisory. I will look for a $1.80 debit exit.
I think I have enough inventory for now. The 4FEB position might need to secure an opportunistic exit should the price pull back intraday over the next week+.
I have no remaining positions. Calendar spreads are good for markets in quiet/trending character, so we’ll want to wait for that type of price action to show again. The calendar spread tracking sheet is available for your download here. Yes, if you follow the math in the sheet, all of the numbers account for commissions in and out of the trade. Please note: If you trade these positions please keep the size small, to the point where you “do not care” about the success or failure of this position.
With all of the four major indices in a death cross, I am suspending additional short put selling until those signals clear. I have the following positions in play:
- SLV Stock – I have 1000 shares of the SLV that was assigned at the $15 level. I opened up new short calls for the 15FEB cycle at SLV $15 calls, securing a $.23 fill (12/28). I might need to roll these trades further OTM but the daily chart is in exhaustion.
- SSO – I sold the SSO 15FEB $65 puts (12/21) for a $1.15 credit, and I closed these (1/31) for a .05 debit. This gave me a net return after commissions of $1.09/contract, or a 1.63% return on capital.
- HPE – I was assigned 500 shares in the DEC2018 cycle and my initial cost basis on this position is $13.78/share. I sold the 15FEB $14 calls (12/24) for a $.23 credit. I will close down this entire position tomorrow as described in today’s video.
No additional entries at this time due to the death cross.
The recent trades were relatively small positions that would create a discount entry should I be assigned. Our priority at this point is to close our open positions and ride out the storm until conditions improve. With that said, if I see truly epic selling that allows me to secure puts at levels where I would be an enthusiastic buyer, I will take those trades. At the very least we would need to wait on Daily/Weekly exhaustion levels.
Position Management – Directional Trades
Thoughts on current swing strategies:
- 8/21 EMA Crossover – Looking for the next signal, which occurred last week and the first signal has passed. I will consider taking the next pullback to the space between the 8 & 21 ema with a debit call spread.
- RSI(2) CounterTrend – Looking for the next setup.
- Daily S&P Advancers – Looking for the next signal to go long when we have single-digit advancers on the ADSPD.
- Swing – I have the following positions:
- SPY 8FEB 260/261 debit put spread (1/17) for $.40 debit. This one’s going to expire OTM due to the massive bottoming rally.
Crypto markets have been strong when equities are weak; it appears like they might be negatively correlated and could create some important opportunities for us in 2019 if the equities market takes a dump.
Investors should currently be looking to find technical entries to warehouse BTC/ETH/LTC assets for eventual trades on Alt-coins. You should also be looking to devices like “trezor” or other cold-storage devices to keep your assets off of the network, or other secure wallet such as Navcoin. Relying on the security of your broker is no longer good enough; no one can log into your ETrade account and “steal” your stock assets, but the whole nature of Cryptocurrencies and their portability means that someone can grab your assets and transfer them elsewhere. I will continue to discuss the tradingview platform in daily videos as I think that it is currently the best way to chart the “big three.”
Viewing the SPY from the Friday closing price at 270.06, there is a +/-4.025 EM into this coming Friday. This is slightly smaller than last week’s 4.733 EM, probably because we have so much less headline risk this week. The EM targets for this Friday’s close are 274.09 to the upside, and 266.04 to the downside.
I entered the 1FEB 270 puts for $.36 on Friday morning as the price faded back from the upper EM, and simply put in a $.72 limit order and left for the day. That order filled with about an hour left in the trading day for $.72; this gave me a $34/contract profit or a 94% return on capital.
I will start playing directional bear spreads once we see upside exhaustion on more than one timeframe.
The scan that I discussed in the 8/4/2018 video is available to download for thinkorswim here: http://tos.mx/OvdVnz I will also be adding a second Larry Connors scan to this section as well; here is the Connors Crash scan: http://tos.mx/BhHuKL
I had the following positions in play:
- GLD 1MAR 122.5/123.5 debit call spread (1/28) entered for $.48 debit, and closed (1/30) for a $.74 credit. This gave me a $22/contract profit or a net 46% return on capital after commissions.
I like the following entries for Monday:
- V 1MAR debit call spread ATM – I will seek to trade a $1-wide call spread that has the long strike ITM and the short strike OTM for a net debit of about $.50. I might need to move the strikes in case of a gap, or worst case I will go to a $2-wide spread that trades for about $1.
- NFLX 1MAR debit call spread ATM.- I will seek to trade a $2.5-wide call spread that has the long strike ITM and the short strike OTM for a net debit of about $1.25. I might need to move the strikes in case of a gap, but will not widen the spread out in case of a gap.
The “Hindenburg Strategy” is meant to capture “value” from successive corrections that lead up to the final “death spiral” with a Bear Market. The basic principle is to buy 3-month out long puts on the SPY, and to finance those puts by the sale of credit spreads.
I have no positions at this time. I cleared out the most recent set of puts on the drop to the 200ma back in October. I will “reload” again soon. The three-month puts are still somewhat expensive. (3 months out/90% of current price).