Daily Market Newsletter
December 19, 2018Non-Directional Strategies
Semi-Directional Strategies
Directional Strategies
Bitcoin/Crypto
View Doc's New Book
December Expiration
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Market Commentary
The Fed hiked as predicted, and markets staged a protest after the announcement.
Not only did they hike the rates a quarter point, but also signaled that they would likely hike twice more next year.
Over the last couple of weeks I had postulated that if Powell paused the rate assault, then markets would be left with more uncertainty with the “what does he know that we don’t know?” question. With a somewhat-more-hawkish response than expected, perhaps the same question could be asked, from a positive perspective?
Wishful thinking. I think what we saw today was posturing, plain and simple. The “Mother Knows Best” attitude, or the parental “do it because I said so!” response. With the Ten Year note dropping 1.66% today, the Fed has entered a game of “chicken” that it sees rates rising, while the rest of the free world sees something else. I believe that history will judge today harshly.
Let’s toss out a couple of targets so that we can “frame in” the problem.
- The 20% Haircut/Bear Market level – This would be at SPX 2353. Markets usually have some kind of relief bounce at the Bear Market delineator because weak hands say “OK! Let’s short now!” That’s about 150 points away and we’re unlikely to get there on this swing.
- The Bear Flag Target level – I discussed this earlier this week, as we had an average 240 point move down to start the flag which was centered at SPX 2700, and a 240 point move down from there would target SPX 2460. This was almost tagged today.
- The 2008 Bear Analog – Between 2007 to 2009, the SPX lost 57.7% of its former value, starting at 1576, finishing at 666 in March of 2009. If the 2018 high water mark lost 57.7% of its value, as a comparison we’d be at SPX 1244. Wow.
I do believe that we are getting close to a short-term bottom. We are showing exhaustion on the SPX daily as well as most other index charts, and we finally have an RSI value below 30. None of these signals by themselves will suddenly arrest the fall, only when demand begins to outstrip supply will that occur, and that will take a healthy dose of “certainty” to rescue the market. It looks like we are destined to hit the SPX 2400 level. The one thing that I will bring up, however, is that Fed Day moves are often reversed.
I will be out all day on Thursday and the newsletter will be delivered later than usual.
Here is the current scorecard:
- S&P is down ~452 points or 15.37%
- Dow is down 3789 points or 14.06%
- /NQ is down 1428 points or 18.48%
- RUT is down 398 points or 22.85%
What is our approach to trading this market, which has once again moved into a “Sideways/Volatile” character?
- Sell credit spreads/create iron condors on the SPX into relative extremes, beyond the current range of movement.
- Establish long iron condors when the price shows potential of moving a great distance in the near future.
- Exercise caution with long stocks/short puts as we see the 50/200 death cross hit each index
- Look to establish debit spread-based swing trades against sentiment extremes, and/or EM boundaries
Markets are at a very important tipping point going forward; be mentally nimble enough to allow the price to go either way from here.
The scan for the “Cheap Stocks with Weeklys” is available here.
The RSI(2) FE scan is available here.
The current MAIN “high liquidity” watchlist that I’m scanning against in thinkorswim is available here.
Please sign up for our free daily crypto report here.
An embedded flash video is available here.
Offensive Actions
Offensive Actions for the next trading day:
- I will look to enter the SSO (stock) long on a wash-out low based on a single-digit number of advancing stocks in the S&P. (see “Swing” section below)
- I have placed an extrapolation credit spread order for the SPX FEB series; see “HP Condors” below.
Defensive Actions
Defensive actions for the next trading day:
- Any vertical, butterfly, or diagonal debit spreads that we set up are risk-managed from day one, and no defense is really required.
- Closing orders have been entered for all new spreads.
- I will look for a bounce over the next two weeks to see if our 28DEC Long Condor call spreads can throw off some value.
- I will attempt to close my HPE short puts; see “stocks” section below.
Strategy Summary Graphs
Each graph below represents a summary of the current performance of a strategy category. For an explanation of what the graphs mean, watch this video.
Non-Directional Strategies
Semi-Directional Strategies
Directional Strategies
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Technical Analysis Section
Market Internals: Volume was large today and breadth ended the day very weak with -384 advancers minus decliners.
SPX Market Timer : The Intermediate line turned down into the Lower Reversal Zone, still showing a bearish bias. This chart is now showing a Full Bullish Cluster (for the third day in a row) with all timeframes oversold; this is a relatively rare signal and shows that all three timeframes are now considered “oversold.” This signal can be a leading signal for a bounce.
DOW Theory: The SPX is in a long term uptrend, an intermediate downtrend, and a short-term downtrend. The RUT is in a long-term uptrend, an intermediate downtrend, and a short-term downtrend. The Dow is in an intermediate downtrend and short-term downtrend.
VIX: The VIX flattened at 25.58 after peaking at 50.3 ten months ago, back inside the bollinger bands. The RVX rose to 28.49 and is back inside the bollinger bands.
Fibonacci Retracements: The 38.2% Fib Retracement of the entire 2016-2018 swing higher would be at the SPX 2509 level; this got undercut today. The RUT 50% retracement came into play today.
Support/Resistance: For the SPX, support is at 2400 … with overhead resistance at 2800 and 2941. The RUT has support at RUT 1300 with overhead resistance at 1553. The S&P500, Russell 2000, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 have all printed a Death Cross with the 50ma crossing below the 200ma; this can be a leading signal for a true Bearish move.
Fractal Energies: The major timeframe (Monthly) is super-charged again, with a reading of 65. The Weekly chart has an energy reading of 47. The Daily chart is showing a level of 37 which is just into exhaustion on the swing down.
Other Technicals: The SPX Stochastics indicator fell to 24, above oversold. The RUT Stochastics indicator fell to 15, oversold. SPX MACD histogram fell below the signal line, showing a loss of upside momentum. The SPX is back outside the Bollinger Bands with Bollinger Band support at 2515 and resistance at the upper band at 2797 with price is below the lower band. The RUT is back outside the Bollinger Bands with its boundaries at 1356 to 1571 and price is below the lower band.
Position Management – NonDirectional Trades
I have the following positions in play:
- SPY 21DEC 251/252*277/278 Long Iron Condor (11/26) entered for $.16 debit on the puts and $.18 debit on the call spreads. Per my advisory to close either side at 200%, my call spreads were sold off at $.54 credit (11/30) and I used recent weakness to clear off the put spreads (12/6) for a $.17 exit. The overall profit on this trade was $32/contract on the calls and -$3/contract on the puts, for a net profit of $29/contract, or an 85.3% return on capital for the entire trade.
- SPY 28DEC 269/270*289/290 Long Iron Condor (12/3) entered for $.17 debit on the puts and $.17 debit on the call spreads. I sold off the put spreads (12/6) for $.56 credit, leaving the call spreads open and ensuring at least a 50% return on the overall trade. The overall profit on the puts was $35/contract so even if the calls expire worthless at the end of the month we will net a minimum $16/contract net profit after commissions, or a 47% return on capital. I will look for the price to bounce by the end of the month and possibly score a return on the call spreads.
- SPY 04JAN 257/258*281/282 Long Iron Condor (12/7) entered for $.18 debits on both the puts and calls, for a total trade debit of $.36. I cleared the put spreads at target $.54 credit (12/17) and will the opposite side call spreads in play to remove as the volatility allows it.
- SPY 11JAN 247/248*270/271 Long Iron Condor (12/17) entered for $.17 debit on the call spreads and $.18 debit on the put spreads. I will look for a 200% return on either side individually, and keep the other side in play to see if the volatility will allow us a favorable exit.
We are scoring big % returns on the long condors and our risk is very limited in this extreme volatility. I am very glad that we took the opportunity to close our short condors and spreads; absolutely horrible to hold short options in this type of price movement, especially in a short-vega trade.
I will add another SPY Long Iron Condor this Friday; I will be entering a position on the 18JAN cycle.
I have placed a vertical credit spread order that would likely take a large move lower to fill; this would be a capitulation fill, I believe. I have entered an SPX 15FEB 2150/2140 put credit spread for $.80 credit. This will not fill unless we have a big additional downside move. Keep this position small!
I have no positions at this time. We’ll park this strategy until the next high-probability condition shows. We’ll want to see daily exhaustion on the SPX or RUT after a strong move, at the very least. This strategy works best with a quiet/trending market, and not with a sideways/volatile one that we’re currently seeing.
I have no remaining positions. Calendar spreads are good for markets in quiet/trending character, so we’ll want to wait for that type of price action to show again. The calendar spread tracking sheet is available for your download here. Yes, if you follow the math in the sheet, all of the numbers account for commissions in and out of the trade. Please note: If you trade these positions please keep the size small, to the point where you “do not care” about the success or failure of this position.
With three out of the four major indices in a death cross, I am suspending additional short put selling until those signals clear. I have the following positions in play:
- SLV Stock – I have 1000 shares of the SLV that was assigned at the $15 level. I sold the 31DEC $15 SLV calls (10/3) for $.16. If this little bounce continues I might be selling $15 calls into FEB.
- SSO – I sold SSO 21DEC $95 puts (11/14) for $1.02 credit, and I closed this position out (12/19) for $1.05 debit. I did not roll the position to February yet as the SSO options bid/ask spread was too wide today. I will be out tomorrow so I will just delay this decision until we see more exhaustion on the SPX chart. We could possibly roll those puts to the SSO 65 level and still get a big credit; let’s see if that’s possible on Friday.
- HPE – I sold 21DEC $14 puts (11/12) for $.23 credit and looking to close for $.05. This option has gone ITM and I don’t want to see it trade below $13. I might have to accept assignment unless we see a bounce higher into Friday.
- BAC – I sold 18JAN $24 puts (11/19) for a $.25 credit and looking to close for $.05. Starting to transition into a serious downtrend but still OTM. Will need to close these on the next bounce up.
The recent trades were relatively small positions that would create a discount entry should I be assigned. Our priority at this point is to close our open positions and ride out the storm until conditions improve. With that said, if I see truly epic selling that allows me to secure puts at levels where I would be an enthusiastic buyer, I will take those trades. At the very least we would need to wait on Daily/Weekly exhaustion levels.
Position Management – Directional Trades
Thoughts on current swing strategies:
- 8/21 EMA Crossover – The 8/21EMA crossover showed another false signal, which this study is famous for. We have to avoid these false breakouts and aggressively pursue the “real” one when it shows; not an easy task.
- RSI(2) CounterTrend – Looking for the next setup. Lots of these showing now, best to play these during primary uptrend.
- Daily S&P Advancers – if I see the number of daily S&P500 advancers drop into single digits near the close of any trading day, I will go long shares of the SSO.
- Swing – We will look for the next available swing soon.
Crypto markets were up about 10% today, well before equity markets began to sell off. Could it be digital gold?
Investors should currently be looking to find technical entries to warehouse BTC/ETH/LTC assets for eventual trades on Alt-coins. You should also be looking to devices like “trezor” or other cold-storage devices to keep your assets off of the network, or other secure wallet such as Navcoin. Relying on the security of your broker is no longer good enough; no one can log into your ETrade account and “steal” your stock assets, but the whole nature of Cryptocurrencies and their portability means that someone can grab your assets and transfer them elsewhere. I will continue to discuss the tradingview platform in daily videos as I think that it is currently the best way to chart the “big three.”
Viewing the SPY from the Friday closing price at 260.47, there is a +/-6.897 EM into this coming Friday. This is smaller than last week’s 8.261 EM. The EM targets for this Friday’s close are 267.37 to the upside, and 253.57 to the downside.
Lately we have been seeing the largest moves on Mondays as weekend risk is processed, and this was once again the case today.
I had set up the SPY 19DEC 257/258 Debit call vertical (12/18) for $.52 debit; I cleared it out today (12/19) for a $.54 credit or break-even. The lower EM eventually got brutalized.
We did get some recent experience with this style of trading and quite frankly it’s not as easy as it sounds. Strong bull trends do not give way easily. My conclusion is that this strategy is best reserved for stocks experiencing a snap-back rally in a primary bear trend. If the market starts to print a lower high on the weekly chart then I will become more serious about this strategy.
The scan that I discussed in the 8/4/2018 video is available to download for thinkorswim here: http://tos.mx/OvdVnz I will also be adding a second Larry Connors scan to this section as well; here is the Connors Crash scan: http://tos.mx/BhHuKL
I have no positions at this time.
No other entries at this point. I would prefer to see the market stabilize first before looking long again. We will see big volatility over the next two+ months. If we are able to secure a “higher low” off of the S&P in the short run, this might be a good environment for a couple of weeks.
The “Hindenburg Strategy” is meant to capture “value” from successive corrections that lead up to the final “death spiral” with a Bear Market. The basic principle is to buy 3-month out long puts on the SPY, and to finance those puts by the sale of credit spreads. Frankly, selling the “financing” trades has been a huge challenge in this low-vol environment. I will only sell put spreads on decent pullbacks that allow me to secure put spreads 10% OTM. We have no positions at the current time. I have no positions at this time. I cleared out the current puts on the drop to the 200ma. I will “reload” again on the next bounce up.
I passed on the recent entry; I’m going to hold off for a little longer to see if a more complex top is created off of a higher high. Recent entries were expensive due to elevated vol.