Daily Market Newsletter

March 22, 2017

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Market Commentary

Markets are getting nervous about tomorrow’s Congressional vote on the ACA replacement bill; is it DOA as the market felt yesterday, or does it still have life? Either way, it’s going to be a political time bomb as it’s been shown that over the years, once you grant an “entitlement” or some other government benefit, it tends to stay. It’s just like incremental taxes, which tend to never get repealed and years later people are wondering how it crept higher.

The issue at hand is not necessarily the Health-care bill, but it is important….the real issue is all of the other legislation in the pipeline that has been priced into the market over the last four months. If uncertainty reigns, then the eventual pullback might drop as far as SPX 2200, which would be an 8% haircut from the highs.

On any bounce back up, I would like to continue to add small bearish positions. I think that the opening act is just getting started.

If the video above does not play, please try this version of the video with embedded player.

Offensive Actions

Offensive Actions for the next trading day:

No trades for tomorrow..

Defensive Actions

Defensive actions for the next trading day:

Any vertical, butterfly, or diagonal debit spreads that we set up are risk-managed from day one, and no defense is really required.

Strategy Summary Graphs

Each graph below represents a summary of the current performance of a strategy category. For an explanation of what the graphs mean, watch this video.

Non-Directional Strategies

Semi-Directional Strategies

Directional Strategies

Technical Analysis Section

Market Internals: Volume was lower today and about average. Breadth was stronger with +176 advancers minus decliners.

SPX Market Timer : The Intermediate line turned down, below the Upper Reversal Zone, now showing a bearish bias. The two weaker lines have bounced somewhat after yesterday’s Weak Bullish Cluster in the lower reversal zone.

DOW Theory: The SPX is in a long term uptrend, an intermediate uptrend, and a short-term downtrend. The RUT is in a long-term uptrend, an intermediate downtrend, and a short-term uptrend. The Dow is in an intermediate uptrend and short-term downtrend.

VIX: The VIX gained .96% to 12.59, inside the bollinger bands. The RVX dropped .39% to 17.69 and is back inside the bollinger bands.

Fibonacci Retracements: Fibs are not in play right now.

Support/Resistance: For the SPX, support is at 2188 … with no overhead resistance. The RUT has support at RUT 1300 with no overhead resistance. All three major index charts that we follow are now showing a Golden Cross with the 50 day moving average crossing above the 200 day average.

Fractal Energies: The major timeframe (Monthly) is now into exhaustion with a reading of 30. The Weekly chart is now technically exhausted with an energy reading of 38, due to the recent breakout. The Daily chart is showing a level of 51 which is recovering quickly. It’s rare when we have all three major timeframes in exhaustion as we had for two weeks.

Other Technicals: The SPX Stochastics indicator fell to 44, mid-scale. The RUT Stochastics indicator rose to 33. above oversold. The SPX MACD histogram fell below the signal line, showing a lack of upside momentum. The SPX is back inside the Bollinger Bands with Bollinger Band support at 2348 and resistance at the upper band at 2394 and is at the lower band. The RUT is back inside the Bollinger Bands with its boundaries at 1344 to 1417 and price is at the lower band.

We are seeing the market pricing in a shift in character out of the recent lifeless Fed-driven economy, and into an unrestrained one. I think this will bring about a big shift in how the market behaves, but a pullback to stoke up the negativity and move into a larger trading range would be a good thing to see first.

Position Management – NonDirectional Trades

I have no positions in play; I will wait on the first significant pullback to allow me to secure put spreads below support.

Offense: I still do not want to set up OTM credit spreads in this low-vol environment until we see real movement to the downside. If and when we get this movement we’ll need to identify levels that we want our credit spreads to be “below.” This is the same type of price action that was so perilous to HP condors back in 2013, so let’s not fight it.

If I see price drop to the SPX 2300 level, this might be our first opportunity to sell premium against that level.

I have no positions at the current time; I will wait for the next exhaustion signal to show. .

I have the following positions:

ABBV 31MAR/7APR 64.5/66.5 Call Diagonal (3/20) was entered for a $.97 credit. I will look for a 40-50% return from this trade and that decision is usually made intraday in this market.

The calendar spread tracking sheet is available for your download here. Yes, if you follow the math in the sheet, all of the numbers account for commissions in and out of the trade. Please note: If you trade these positions please keep the size small, to the point where you “do not care” about the success or failure of this position.

I have the following positions in play:

SDS Stock – I still own 100 shares of this stock from 2011 and will continue to write calls against this position with every correction/pullback.
VXX Stock – I own 12 shares of this stock and will hold until Armageddon occurs.
SLV Stock – I have 1000 shares of the SLV that was assigned at the $15 level. I will look for the next daily exhaustion signal to sell further OTM calls against this position.
TWTR I have somewhat soured on TWTR and apparently so has the rest of the market. .
RIG I’m going to add more puts once we determine that the range is printed on US markets. .
X – I added the 19MAY $25 puts (3/13) for $.37 credit.
AMD – I sold the APR $11 puts (2/27) on AMD for $.19 credit.
NVDA – I sold the 19MAY $80 puts (3/13) for $.90 credit.

If we get more of a pullback then I can be a little more aggressive with this strategy. I have a feeling that a lot of things will be on sale before long.

Position Management – Directional Trades

Thoughts on current swing strategies:

8/21 EMA Crossover – The 8/21 ema is starting to cross over to the downside now. I might consider taking a short SPY setup on the next bounce up to the 21EMA .
RSI(2) CounterTrend – I’ll look for more of these in the near future as a new range approaches.
Daily S&P Advancers – if I see the number of daily S&P500 advancers drop into single digits near the close of any trading day, I will go long shares of the SSO.

I have no positions at this time. The next earnings season will begin in April.

I have the following positions:

QQQ 19MAY 116 Puts (2/16) were bought for $.70 debit. Still need more downside movement to light these up.
CRM 21APR 79/80 Put Spread (3/21) was added for $.20 debit. I will enter a $.46 credit closing order GTC for a 100% return.

I have the following positions:

BIDU APR17 190/195 Debit Call Spread (1/30) entered for a $.98 debit.Understand that I do not have a “stop” in this trade. I closed down half of the contracts (2/17)for a $1.82 credit, or a net profit of $80/contract. I will hold the rest of the contracts longer-term and wait on the breakout.
TWTR 16JUN 21/22 Debit Call Spread (2/6) was entered for a $.20 debit.
VLO 31MAR 67.5/69.5 Debit Call Spread (2/28) was entered for a $1.00 debit. I will look for a 50% gain from this position. Currently this trade is profitable but it needs to move soon.

I’m going to hold off on Whale longs until the market sets up or clears this current corrective action.

The “Hindenburg Strategy” is meant to capture “value” from successive corrections that lead up to the final “death spiral” with a Bear Market. The basic principle is to buy 3-month out long puts on the SPY, and to finance those puts by the sale of credit spreads.

Quite honestly, selling the “financing” trades has been a huge challenge in this low-vol environment. I will only sell put spreads on decent pullbacks that allow me to secure put spreads 10% OTM

Per Thursday’s report I added the JUN17 long puts. I can’t think of a better market condition to be adding long puts.

I will likely clear all put options if the price drops 5% from the recent highs at SPX 2400. Not sure that I can expect much more than that given the current climate.

We currently have the following positions in play with this strategy:

SPY JUN17 215 long puts – I entered this position (3/17) for a $1.19 debit.
SPY APR17 206 long puts – I entered this position (1/27) for a $.92 debit.