Daily Market Newsletter

January 26, 2017

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Market Commentary

More news about “the wall” today and how Trump intends to tax imports from Mexico to pay for it. I believe that this is cover since Mexico will do anything rather than see its exports to the US get crushed like that, so they might come up with a solution to save face and everyone wins. Things are so fluid and moving so quickly that I think everyone is stunned. But the higher that this market rises without pause, the deeper the eventual correction will be..

If the above video does not work, please try this link.

Offensive Actions

Offensive Actions for the next trading day:

I did not add the Hindenburg position today, so I’ll do it tomorrow….I will add SPY APR17 206 Hindenburg puts tomorrow, see Hindenburg section below.
I will set up some additional offensive trades in this weekend’s report.

Defensive Actions

Defensive actions for the next trading day:

Any vertical, butterfly, or diagonal debit spreads that we set up are risk-managed from day one, and no defense is really required.
I will close the MSFT earnings trade tomorrow per the video.

Strategy Summary Graphs

Each graph below represents a summary of the current performance of a strategy category. For an explanation of what the graphs mean, watch this video.

Non-Directional Strategies

Semi-Directional Strategies

Directional Strategies

Technical Analysis Section

Market Internals: Volume was about average today. Breadth was mixed with -89 advancers minus decliners.

SPX Market Timer : The Intermediate line rose in the Upper Reversal Zone, showing a bullish bias. This chart is now showing a strong bearish cluster for the second day in a row, which can sometimes signal a pause.

DOW Theory: The SPX is in a long term uptrend, an intermediate uptrend, and a short-term uptrend. The RUT is in a long-term uptrend, an intermediate uptrend, and a short-term uptrend. The Dow is in an intermediate uptrend and short-term uptrend.

VIX: The VIX fell 1.67% to 10.63, inside the bollinger bands. The RVX fell 1.68% to 16.42 and is inside the bollinger bands.

Fibonacci Retracements: Fibs are not in play right now.

Support/Resistance: For the SPX, support is at 2188 … with overhead resistance at 2300. The RUT has support at RUT 1300 with overhead resistance at 1393. All three major index charts that we follow are now showing a Golden Cross with the 50 day moving average crossing above the 200 day average.

Fractal Energies: The major timeframe (Monthly) is still charged with a reading of 42. The Weekly chart is now technically exhausted with an energy reading of 36, due to the recent breakout. The Daily chart is showing a level of 54 which is completely recharged again; we are seeing the expected short consolidation at this level but it’s not going to last much longer as the daily energy must go somewhere….looks like it’s breaking higher again.

Other Technicals: The SPX Stochastics indicator rose to 69, below overbought. The RUT Stochastics indicator rose to 42. above oversold. The SPX MACD histogram rose above the signal line, showing a return of upside momentum. The SPX is outside the Bollinger Bands with Bollinger Band support at 2242 and resistance at the upper band at 2297 and is above the upper band. The RUT is inside the Bollinger Bands with its boundaries at 1343 to 1386 and price is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands are starting to squeeze, especially on the RUT.

We are seeing the market pricing in a shift in character out of the recent lifeless Fed-driven economy, and into an unrestrained one. I think this will bring about a big shift in how the market behaves, but a pullback to stoke up the negativity would be a good thing to see first.

Position Management – NonDirectional Trades

I have no positions in play; I will wait on the first significant pullback to allow me to secure put spreads below support.

Offense: I still do not want to set up OTM credit spreads in this low-vol environment until we see real movement to the downside. If and when we get this movement we’ll need to identify levels that we want our credit spreads to be “below.” This is the same type of price action that was so perilous to HP condors back in 2013, so let’s not fight it.

If I see price drop to the SPX 2200 level, this might be our first opportunity to sell premium against that level.

I have no current positions:

I expect movement very soon so I’ll put this strategy on the shelf until I see the next signal.

I have no current positions. If I see this current move continue to the upside, I’ll start to look for exhaustion signals that line up with resistance, and then sell Weekly Diagonals again. I looked through my scans this weekend and none were quite set up. EFA appears to be the chart showing the best near-term potential for a Weekly Short Call Diagonal. TSLA is also in a very nice position but I don’t like trading the wider spreads from a risk-management perspective, and earnings are skewing the volatilities.

Please note: If you trade these positions please keep the size small, to the point where you “do not care” about the success or failure of this position.

I have the following positions in play:

SDS Stock – I still own 100 shares of this stock from 2011 and will continue to write calls against this position with every correction/pullback.
VXX Stock – I own 12 shares of this stock and will hold until Armageddon occurs.
SLV Stock – I have 1000 shares of the SLV that was assigned at the $15 level, and I sold SLV FEB $17 calls (1/17) for $.19 credit. No action required.
GE I will look to sell FEB17 $29 puts if the pullback continues.
TWTR I added another ten contracts (1/3) of $13 FEB puts for $.20. I don’t care about the recent bad press.
RIG I would like to sell against the $12 or $13 level again. .

I will be continuing to “bottom fish” in the subsequent weeks to identify stock candidates that I would want to own long-term. Pullbacks across the board would help.

Position Management – Directional Trades

Thoughts on current swing strategies:

8/21 EMA Crossover -This one is gone. Looking for the next crossover, however it will be to the downside, and the first downside crossover is usually a poor signal. .
RSI(2) CounterTrend – I’ll look for more of these in the near future..
Daily S&P Advancers – if I see the number of daily S&P500 advancers drop into single digits near the close of any trading day, I will go long shares of the SSO.

I have the following positions:

MSFT 27JAN 64/65 debit call spread was entered for a $.51 debit. I will sell into early strength, and hold on through early weakness to see if the price rises into the afternoon. Either way I have to close this position tomorrow.

I have the following position:

SPY 10FEB 225.5/227.5 debit put spread (1/10) was entered for a $.79 debit. I will look for about a 50% return on capital with this position.

I will also look for an exhaustion candle on the daily chart and will consider adding a position on the DIA.

I have no positions at this time.

IBM 24FEB 170/172.5 call spread (1/23) entered for $1.20 debit. I sold this position (1/24) for a $2.00 credit. This gave me a net profit of $76/contract after commissions, which was a 63% return on capital. .

The “Hindenburg Strategy” is meant to capture “value” from successive corrections that lead up to the final “death spiral” with a Bear Market. The basic principle is to buy 3-month out long puts on the SPY, and to finance those puts by the sale of credit spreads.

Quite honestly, selling the “financing” trades has been a huge challenge in this low-vol environment. I will only sell put spreads on decent pullbacks that allow me to secure put spreads 10% OTM

I will set up SPY APR17 206 puts tomorrow, currently showing a $.94 cost.

We currently have the following positions in play with this strategy:

SPY FEB17 200 long puts – I entered this position (12/7) for a $.95 debit.
SPY MAR17 203 long puts – I entered this position (12/28) for a $1.07 debit.