Daily Market Newsletter

February 11, 2017

View Doc's New Book

Order Via Amazon

February Expiration

Day(s)

Hour(s)

Minute(s)

Second(s)

Market Commentary

Wall Street still loves what the Trump administration is promising, tuning out the seemingly ever-constant din of protests from those opposed to his policies. It’s stunning when you think back to the fact that one of his opponent’s major sources of campaign contributions was from Wall Street itself, who hates “uncertainty” with a passion and wanted to see old policies continue at all costs. Now Wall Street is saying that it “likes” the new promises even though there is a lot of uncertainty as to whether they will actually get passed as law.

Something that I heard recently….again….was that “this is the most-hated bull market in history.” Well, honestly, I think that you can say that about any Bull market, especially one that’s left so many bridesmaids at the altar. The price has risen roughly 1700 SPX points with most being on the sidelines through the majority of that, constantly looking over their shoulders at 2008, saying…..but….but….but LOOK AT THIS OR LOOK AT THAT!!! Yes, valuations and fundamentals are out of whack. At some point in the future we will pay heavily for this diseased, distorted financial mess that central banks created. But I continue to think that it will happen only when everyone embraces the market for what it is, and drops their skepticism. Markets will forever climb a wall of worry as we are presently seeing, as all doubt and skepticism gets forcibly flushed out of the system first before the eventual fall.

In the near term, I am not expecting a big sell-off, just an expanded range to set up the next base.

If the above video does not work, please try this link.

Offensive Actions

Offensive Actions for the next trading day:

I will enter an AAPL LP Iron Condor on Monday morning, see the “LP Condor” section below.
I have additional “Whale” setups on TIF and XLU as well, see that section below.

Defensive Actions

Defensive actions for the next trading day:

Any vertical, butterfly, or diagonal debit spreads that we set up are risk-managed from day one, and no defense is really required.

Strategy Summary Graphs

Each graph below represents a summary of the current performance of a strategy category. For an explanation of what the graphs mean, watch this video.

Non-Directional Strategies

Semi-Directional Strategies

Directional Strategies

Technical Analysis Section

Market Internals: Volume was above average Friday. Breadth was good but diverging with 213 advancers minus decliners.

SPX Market Timer : The Intermediate line turned up into the Upper Reversal Zone, showing a bullish bias. This chart is now showing a “Strong Bearish Cluster” with the two strongest timeframes in the Upper Reversal Zone; this sometimes foreshadows a pause in the trend..

DOW Theory: The SPX is in a long term uptrend, an intermediate uptrend, and a short-term uptrend. The RUT is in a long-term uptrend, an intermediate uptrend, and a short-term uptrend. The Dow is in an intermediate uptrend and short-term uptrend.

VIX: The VIX fell .28% to 10.85, inside the bollinger bands. The RVX fell .44% to 17.91 and is inside the bollinger bands.

Fibonacci Retracements: Fibs are not in play right now.

Support/Resistance: For the SPX, support is at 2188 … with overhead resistance at 2300. The RUT has support at RUT 1300 with overhead resistance at 1393. All three major index charts that we follow are now showing a Golden Cross with the 50 day moving average crossing above the 200 day average.

Fractal Energies: The major timeframe (Monthly) is still charged with a reading of 39, almost into exhaustion. The Weekly chart is now technically exhausted with an energy reading of 34, due to the recent breakout. The Daily chart is showing a level of 50 which is completely recharged again; we are seeing the expected breakout from the recent consolidation at this level but it might not be able to maintain this pace much longer before a deeper retracement.

Other Technicals: The SPX Stochastics indicator rose to 72, below overbought. The RUT Stochastics indicator fell to 55. mid-scale. The SPX MACD histogram rose above the signal line, showing a return of upside momentum. The SPX is outside the Bollinger Bands with Bollinger Band support at 2257 and resistance at the upper band at 2314 and is above the upper band. The RUT is outside the Bollinger Bands with its boundaries at 1341 to 1388 and price is above the upper band. The Bollinger Bands are starting to squeeze, especially on the RUT.

We are seeing the market pricing in a shift in character out of the recent lifeless Fed-driven economy, and into an unrestrained one. I think this will bring about a big shift in how the market behaves, but a pullback to stoke up the negativity would be a good thing to see first.

Position Management – NonDirectional Trades

I have no positions in play; I will wait on the first significant pullback to allow me to secure put spreads below support.

Offense: I still do not want to set up OTM credit spreads in this low-vol environment until we see real movement to the downside. If and when we get this movement we’ll need to identify levels that we want our credit spreads to be “below.” This is the same type of price action that was so perilous to HP condors back in 2013, so let’s not fight it.

If I see price drop to the SPX 2200 level, this might be our first opportunity to sell premium against that level.

I have no current positions:

AAPL looks to be setting up as a LP IC Condor candidate with exhaustion showing on the Weekly and Daily charts.

I will set up an AAPL 3MAR 128/130*134/136 Iron Condor on Monday morning for the largest available credit possible. I will seek to earn 20% after commissions on this position.

I have no current positions.

The next time spread will be on AAPL if the price rises up to tag the $134 level; I will set up a short call diagonal by selling the ITM call that’s about 7+ days to expiration, and buying the ATM strike with about another week of time.

Please note: If you trade these positions please keep the size small, to the point where you “do not care” about the success or failure of this position.

I have the following positions in play:

SDS Stock – I still own 100 shares of this stock from 2011 and will continue to write calls against this position with every correction/pullback.
VXX Stock – I own 12 shares of this stock and will hold until Armageddon occurs.
SLV Stock – I have 1000 shares of the SLV that was assigned at the $15 level, and I sold SLV FEB $17 calls (1/17) for $.19 credit. I will roll these if necessary this week into MAR or APR calls so as not to be called out.
GE I am going to start to focus on the APR put cycle for GE and I’d like to secure the $27 or $28 puts for at least 1%.
TWTR I added another ten contracts (1/3) of $13 FEB puts for $.20. I don’t care about the recent bad press. I will either accept assignment or let these expire this week, I would also be interested in securing APR puts near $10/share this week if the sell-off continues.
RIG I added the $12 MAR17 puts (1/30) for $.19 credit. .So far the $13 support is holding and I’d like to see if I can secure lower, deeper puts this week for late March or APR when printed.
X – I added the MAR17 $25 puts (1/30) for $.47 credit. .We’ll look for the next dip in price to sell again.

Position Management – Directional Trades

Thoughts on current swing strategies:

8/21 EMA Crossover -This one is gone. Looking for the next crossover, however it will be to the downside, and the first downside crossover is usually a poor signal. .
RSI(2) CounterTrend – I’ll look for more of these in the near future; I need to tighten up the rule set first..
Daily S&P Advancers – if I see the number of daily S&P500 advancers drop into single digits near the close of any trading day, I will go long shares of the SSO.

I have no positions at this time.

I have the following position:

DIA 10MAR 199/201 Debit Put Spread (1/30) was entered for a $.94 debit. I will look for a 50% return from this position. I show this as a $1.46 credit limit.

I will start to set up more longer-term bearish positions in the near future as the risk-reward shifts to favor them.

I have the following positions:

BIDU APR17 190/195 Debit Call Spread (1/30) entered for a $.98 debit.Understand that I do not have a “stop” in this trade. Right now I’m showing about a 70% return on this trade and if the expected weekly breakout occurs we could see much higher yields from this position.
TWTR 16JUN 21/22 Debit Call Spread (2/6) was entered for a $.20 debit.

I will enter the following trades on Monday:

XLU 10MAR 48.5/50.5 Call Vertical for $1 debit or less.
TIF 31MAR 80.5/82.5 Call Vertical for $1 debit. I’m not completely certain when earnings will be announced on this position so we’d want to exit prior to that point.

There are many, many charts currently showing a very large amount of energy on the daily chart, but are still in exhaustion on the weekly or even monthly charts. We might be on borrowed time with directional upside plays.

The “Hindenburg Strategy” is meant to capture “value” from successive corrections that lead up to the final “death spiral” with a Bear Market. The basic principle is to buy 3-month out long puts on the SPY, and to finance those puts by the sale of credit spreads.

Quite honestly, selling the “financing” trades has been a huge challenge in this low-vol environment. I will only sell put spreads on decent pullbacks that allow me to secure put spreads 10% OTM

We currently have the following positions in play with this strategy:

SPY FEB17 200 long puts – I entered this position (12/7) for a $.95 debit.
SPY MAR17 203 long puts – I entered this position (12/28) for a $1.07 debit.
SPY APR17 206 long puts – I entered this position (1/27) for a $.92 debit.